The 'Iron Swords' War, Including the War with Iran

Resilience and coping mechanisms of the population in Israel - seven measurements throughout the "Iron Swords" War  

Abstract 

The current research report summarizes the seventh follow-up measurement conducted in the early days of the war between Israel and Iran. This measurement included 745 participants who responded to the research questionnaire in all seven measurements performed during the Iron Swords War. The report consists of two types of analyses: (a) comparison of the mean indices across the entire sample, examined over the seven measurements, and (b) examination of the differences in the mean indices classified into three groups of respondents, according to the level of support for the government: opponents (n=384), supporters (n=222), and neutrals (n=139). Below are the main findings of the seventh measurement: 

Societal Resilience: (a) The average societal resilience of the overall sample declined from one measurement to the next during the first five measurements and increased in the sixth and seventh measurements, compared to the fifth measurement. (b) A decrease in societal resilience was observed among all three government support groups during the first five measurements, followed by an increase in the sixth and seventh measurements. In each of the seven measurements, there were significant differences in the level of societal resilience based on the degree of government support: government supporters reported the highest levels of societal resilience, followed by neutrals, and finally, government opponents. 

Societal Resilience Factors: Four components of societal resilience were found: trust in the government and its leader, social integration (solidarity), attachment to the state (patriotism), and trust in state institutions. In all seven measurements, "attachment to the state" was the factor with the highest level among the four. In comparison, "trust in the government and its leadership" was the factor with the lowest level in the first six measurements, only surpassing trust in state institutions in the seventh measurement. All four factors showed a consistent and mostly significant downward trend from one measurement to the next until the fifth measurement. In the sixth and seventh measurements, there was an increase, which was significant for some factors in the sixth measurement and significant for all factors in the seventh measurement. 

Trust in State Institutions: Trust was assessed concerning six institutions: the IDF, the Knesset, the education system, the media, the judiciary, and the police. In all seven measurements, trust in the IDF was the highest, while trust in the Knesset was the lowest. 

Community Resilience: (a) The average community resilience significantly decreased only at the beginning of the measurements, from the first to the second measurement, and from the second to the third. In subsequent measurements, slight increased or decreased trends were observed, but they were not statistically significant. The seventh measurement showed a significant increase in the average community resilience. (b) Throughout the seven measurements, small and significant differences were observed between government opponents and their supporters. 

Individual Resilience: (a) The personal resilience of the participants significantly decreased between the second and third measurements and then returned to its previous level in the fourth measurement with no further changes. (b) In all seven measurements, the level of individual resilience was highest among government supporters compared to the other two groups, but this difference was not always statistically significant. Simultaneously, the resilience of the neutrals was the lowest. 

Morale: (a) The average morale of the respondents steadily and significantly increased from one measurement to the next until the fourth measurement. In the fifth measurement, it decreased slightly but significantly, then slightly increased again in the sixth measurement, and also significantly decreased in the seventh. (b) In all measurements, government supporters expressed the highest level of morale, followed by neutrals and, finally, government opponents (all differences were statistically significant in each measurement). 

Hope: (a) The level of hope significantly decreased in the third measurement, stabilized, and then increased significantly in the seventh measurement. (b) In all measurements, government supporters reported higher hope than the other two groups. Furthermore, in most measurements, the level of hope among the neutrals was positioned in the middle between the scores of the other two groups. 

Distress symptoms (anxiety and depression): (a) The average distress level consistently decreased from the first to the sixth measurement, and in most measurements, the difference between each pair of adjacent measurements was statistically significant (except for a non-significant difference between the fourth and fifth measurements). In the seventh measurement, participants reported a significant increase in distress levels. (b) In all measurements, the level of distress reported by government supporters was significantly lower compared to the other two groups, which were not different from each other. 

Sense of danger: (a) Perceived danger significantly decreased in the second measurement and stabilized until the fifth measurement. Afterward, perceived danger decreased again in the sixth measurement but increased again in the seventh. (b) In measurements 1-3, there were no significant differences in the levels of perceived danger between government opponents and neutrals. Nonetheless, there was a significant difference between them and the government supporters' group, which showed lower levels of perceived danger. Subsequently, in measurements 4-7, the gap between the groups increased and became significant across all three groups, with government supporters reporting the lowest levels of sense of danger, followed by the neutrals, and finally, government opponents reporting the highest levels of sense of danger. 

Threat perception: (a) The average perceived threats across the entire sample showed a significant decrease in the second measurement, followed by another decline in the sixth measurement and a significant increase in the seventh measurement. (b) Throughout all seven measurements, government opponents reported the highest perceived threats, followed by neutrals, and finally, government supporters who reported the lowest perceived threats. In the seventh measurement, the gap between the three groups expanded.  

Feelings of despair (measured only in the sixth and seventh measurements): (a) The mean level of despair significantly increased in the seventh measurement compared to the sixth. (b) Government opponents reported the highest levels of feelings of despair, followed by the neutrals, and finally, the government supporters reported the lowest levels. The differences between the three groups were significant in both measurements. 

Perceived Social Cohesion: (a) Social cohesion perception significantly decreased in the first five measurements, stabilized in the sixth, and then significantly increased in the seventh. However, it remained lower compared to the first five measurements. (b) In the first three measurements, no significant differences were observed between the three groups according to government support, but the gap between the groups significantly expanded in measurements 5-7. Government supporters exhibited the highest level of social cohesion perception, followed by the neutrals, and finally, government opponents, who showed the lowest perception of social cohesion 

Evaluation of the Israeli government's efforts to retrieve the hostages (measured in measurements 3-7): (a) There was a decrease in evaluations from the third to the sixth measurement, with significant differences between each pair of adjacent measurements. In the seventh measurement, a small and non-significant increase was observed. (b) In all measurements, there was a significant difference between all three government support groups, with the gaps growing over time. Government supporters rated the government's efforts to retrieve the hostages as high throughout the measurements, with an increase observed in the seventh measurement. Neutrals showed moderate ratings, which declined over the measurements, while government opponents initially showed moderate ratings that decreased with each measurement, reaching relatively low levels. 

Co-Author: Professor Yohanan Eshel